Expert predictions for NFL Week 11 game – The Athletic

That’s more like it, Buffalo. The Bills shook off that embarrassing loss to Jacksonville by throttling the Jets, 45-17. Josh Allen threw for 366 yards and two touchdowns while Stefon Diggs broke out for eight catches, 162 yards and a score. Buffalo’s defense was even better, forcing five turnovers. The only loser here could’ve possibly been fantasy football owners of Devin Singletary and Zack Moss – who both scored but twice took a back seat to red zone vulture Matt Breida. Buffalo’s now covered three times as a two-touchdown favorite and opened as 7-point favorites against the Colts.

Indianapolis arguably outplayed Buffalo when these two met in the playoffs last year. But it was the Bills who advanced in that game and looked much more like a playoff team in 2021 than the Colts. Indianapolis improved to 5-5 last week with a 23-17 win over Jacksonville that wasn’t all that convincing. The Colts raced out to a 17-point lead that the Jaguars slowly chipped away at. So what changed? We’ll give you a hint. Jonathan Taylor had 14 carries for 107 yards in the first half and just 7 for nine yards in the second. Good teams tend to put the ball in the hands of their best players. Indianapolis seems like it would rather play with fire. Buffalo is a top-3 defense against the run and pass, so it really may not matter who gets the ball here.

Odds, Over/Under, Moneyline

Team Spread Total Moneyline

+250

-7

49.5

-300

All odds from BetMGM. Odds updated at 10 a.m. ET Sunday. Click here for live odds.

Betting Trends

  • The Colts are 4-1 ATS as underdogs in their last 5 games
  • The Colts are 7-2 ATS on the road in their last 9 games
  • The Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games
  • The Over is 5-2 in Colts games in their last 7 games
  • The Bills are 7-1 ATS at home in their last 8 games
  • The Bills are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games
  • The Bills are 9-3 ATS as favorites in their last 12 games

Click here to learn more about The Athletic’s FREE betting contest with BetPrep.

Storylines for Colts-Bills

Indianapolis Colts news

The Colts have won four of their past five and are attempting to become just the seventh team in NFL history to make the playoffs after an 0-3 start. Taylor is just the fourth player in NFL history with at least 100 yards from scrimmage and a rushing touchdown in seven straight games. He leads the NFL with 1,240 yards from scrimmage. Receiver Michael Pittman has at least 60 receiving yards in each of his last four games. Indianapolis has forced the second most turnovers this season.

Buffalo Bills news

The Bills lead the NFL with the fewest yards (274.1) and points allowed (15) per game. They also have forced the most turnovers (24). They’re coming off a blowout win vs. the Jets that saw quarterback Josh Allen pass for a season-high 366 yards. Allen has a passer rating of at least 100 in six of his past seven games. Diggs has been his top target and caught eight passes for a season-high 162 yards against the Jets.

Expert picks

Writer Straight Up Pick

Ben Standig

Mark Kaboly

Jay Morrison

Michael-Shawn Dugar

Nick Kosmider

Chris Burke

Tashan Reed

Katherine Terrell

More Expert picks

(Photo of Josh Allen: Doug DeFelice / Getty Images; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through links contained in the above article)

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