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How do the Bills match up against potential playoff opponents? A deep dive into the advanced metrics – The Athletic

The Bills are heading into one final game that will dictate their playoff plans. If they can defeat the 4-12 Jets at home, the Bills will be AFC East champions and begin their playoff journey at home.

Either way, the Bills are playoff-bound, which makes this matchup a bit secondary to the one next week. So rather than our usual thoughts column, we’ll take a deep dive into the numbers of every potential team the Bills could face in the playoffs.

The excellent Expected Points Added metric on TruMedia provides a good look at each potential opponent’s true strengths and weaknesses compared with the Bills. To make it more complete, we also included specific segments of the season, including the entire year, the first eight games, the last eight games and their most recent four just for current trends.

How does each team compare with the Bills through the first 16 games? Here is a snapshot of each potential AFC playoff opponent.

(And for those who love a good routine, you can find the Week 18 Bills-Jets prediction at the bottom.)

Pittsburgh Steelers

2021 Bills Defensive EPA vs. Steelers Offensive EPA

In what looks to be Ben Roethlisberger’s final season, things have not gone well on offense for the Steelers. Their passing offense has gotten progressively worse and is the fifth-worst unit in the NFL. Many of their problems stem from not pushing the ball downfield and a subpar offensive line.

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